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Mohamed A. El-ErianCEO and co-CIO, PIMCO GET UPDATES FROM Mohamed A. El-Erian Like 473 This Political Polarization Is Really Bad for America Posted: 12/28/2012 11:59 pm React
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As the year comes to an end, dysfunctional Congressional politics continues to dominate the headlines, and rightly so.
Our politicians are scrambling to deal with a mess that they created all on their own -- a fiscal cliff that risks pushing the country into recession. And while a last minute "micro deal" is still possible, there will be little celebration, nor should there be.
Whatever transpires in the next few days, look for politicians to point fingers at each other. By diverting your attention to those in the other party on Capitol Hill, their hope is, of course, to influence your assessment of who is to blame for taking the country so close to the edge.
I argued in a prior post that the fiscal cliff is the result of a monumental Congressional political miscalculation back in the summer of 2011 -- one that a "game theorist" could have predicted based on an analytical assessment of the conditions under which politicians cooperate.
Yesterday, Jon Horne, a PIMCO colleague, pointed me to a column by Nate Silver which takes the analysis an important step further. And Mr. Silver's findings are quite depressing.
An anchor for Mr. Silver's analysis is the view that "one of the firmest conclusions of academic research into the behavior of Congress is that what motivates members first and foremost is winning elections." By combining this with realities on the ground, his analysis makes a strong case for continued political polarization going forward.
Mr. Silver's conclusion is stark: "As partisanship continues to increase, a divided government may increasingly mean a dysfunctional one."
It was once fashionable to argue that a divided government was good for the economy. The view then was that politicians would be too busy with political brinkmanship to get in the way of a dynamic private sector. As a result, unfettered by government interference, the private sector was more likely to invest, hire and prosper.
It is hard -- very hard -- to make this argument today; and for at least three reasons.
First, even diehard conservatives would admit that, since the 2008 global financial crisis, the country still has to overcome certain market failures. And for that, enlightened government policies are needed, including in clarifying property rights in segments still suffering from post financial bubble disorder.
Second, it is hard to deny the extent to which America has experienced a worsening in the distribution of income, wealth and opportunities in recent years. If we are not careful, this will tear at the social fabric that underpins a dynamic and prospering private sector.
Then there is the international evidence and related comparisons.
America has fallen behind several other countries when it comes to enhancing our human and physical capital. In many cases this is not something that the private sector can (and will) -- remedy fully. In particular, some of the slippages in education and infrastructure need (and should be solved via) public-private partnerships; others involve (indeed, urgently require) more active government reform efforts.
The bottom line is simple and consequential: Our self-inflicted fiscal cliff drama may be the most visible illustration of Congressional political dysfunction but it is unlikely to be the last one or the most challenging.
Judging from Mr, Silver's analysis, we could well experience several iteration of the analytical equivalent of the fiscal cliff in the months ahead. And we would do so with declining policy flexibility.
If left to fester, the related inability of Congress to step up to economic responsibilities would risk being associated with more than just sluggish growth, persistently high unemployment, and a growing sense of financial discomfort.
It would also undermine the country's longer-term growth potential and, with that, the ability of many citizens to realize the American dream.
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We are not discussing he fact that more than half of the baby boomers have no retirement and will drop into poverty when they lose their jobs.And at the same time this is becoming a stark reality, we have people intent on shredding the social safety nets. This along with a crumbling infrastructure and educational system will plunge our nation into a economic crisis which will push us to second or third world statusconfuseddemocrat: great comment.
We are not discussing he fact that morehttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/confuseddemocrat/political-polarization-fiscal-cliff_b_2379060_217411536.htmlHistory |Permalink |Share itThis comment has been down-ranked into oblivion. View comment You have not right to carry out this operation or Error this operation.Loading comments…This comment has been down-ranked into oblivion. View comment You have not right to carry out this operation or Error this operation.
Loading comments… HUFFPOST SUPER USERbobh66 Fans 1 hour ago ( 5:57 AM)Why even pretend that both sides are responsible here? It is the Republicans' doing.bobh: Why even pretend that both sides are responsible here? Ithttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/bobh/political-polarization-fiscal-cliff_b_2379060_217408826.htmlHistory |Permalink |Share itThis comment has been down-ranked into oblivion. View comment You have not right to carry out this operation or Error this operation.
Loading comments… This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program LizMMy micro-bio is too long for this space.182 Fans 2 hours ago ( 5:35 AM)>>>Mr. Silver's conclusion is stark: "As partisanship continues to increase, a divided government may increasingly mean a dysfunctional one."
If this is Mr. Silver’s conclusion then he is a day late and a dollar short.
It stopped being fashionable to argue that divided government was good for the US economy - or for anything else - not long after the inauguration of President-elect Barack Hussein Obama and certainly since the mid-term elections in 2010 by which time it should have become quite apparent, even to the most casual observer, what havoc congressional Republicans were prepared to wreak on America and the US economy.
And, one more thing ... if you actually believe that all of this can be described simply as “political polarization”, then America and the US economy are both, undoubtedly, in a far worse place than I might have otherwise suspected.
Is it really so difficult to call a spade, a spade?LizM: >>>Mr. Silver's conclusion is stark: "As partisanship continues to increase,http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/LizM/political-polarization-fiscal-cliff_b_2379060_217407647.htmlHistory |Permalink |Share itThis comment has been down-ranked into oblivion. View comment You have not right to carry out this operation or Error this operation.Loading comments… mashtoe861 Fans 3 hours ago ( 4:24 AM)Mr El Erian, you were appointed CEO by the US government. You didn't earn it. And if your family didn't immigrate to the US then YOU would be living in Egypt. So stop bad mouthing the US or move to Egypt. And as a banker, you have never produced anything in your life.
What makes bankers like you rich is the fact that the US government will keep bailing you out.mashtoe: Mr El Erian, you were appointed CEO by the UShttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/mashtoe/political-polarization-fiscal-cliff_b_2379060_217404207.htmlHistory |Permalink |Share it Peter Meurer2 Fans 2 hours ago ( 5:00 AM)Neither did you earn it, unless you happen to be of Native American heritage. And where exactly is he badmouthing the US? He's just saying that it's dangerous how impotent the congress is.Peter_Meurer: Neither did you earn it, unless you happen to behttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/Peter_Meurer/political-polarization-fiscal-cliff_b_2379060_217405881.htmlHistory |Permalink |Share itThis comment has been down-ranked into oblivion. View comment You have not right to carry out this operation or Error this operation.Loading comments… JPHR276 Fans 2 hours ago ( 5:26 AM)Did you read his second point:
"Second, it is hard to deny the extent to which America has experienced a worsening in the distribution of income, wealth and opportunities in recent years. If we are not careful, this will tear at the social fabric that underpins a dynamic and prospering private sector."
He clearly indicated what has to change. So if you want to accuse him call him empathic and socially responsible.JPHR: Did you read his second point: "Second, it is hardhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/JPHR/political-polarization-fiscal-cliff_b_2379060_217407198.htmlHistory |Permalink |Share itThis comment has been down-ranked into oblivion. View comment You have not right to carry out this operation or Error this operation.Loading comments…This comment has been down-ranked into oblivion. View comment You have not right to carry out this operation or Error this operation.
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Poppinfresh18 Fans 4 hours ago ( 3:39 AM)This article should be the headline instead of what we have now about the fiscal cliff.Poppinfresh: This article should be the headline instead of what wehttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/Poppinfresh/political-polarization-fiscal-cliff_b_2379060_217401709.htmlHistory |Permalink |Share itThis comment has been down-ranked into oblivion. View comment You have not right to carry out this operation or Error this operation.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USERKeith LeBrun43 Fans 4 hours ago ( 3:18 AM)In a way, I think most of the issues we're looking at today are a direct result of the so-called "dynamic private sector". In order to continue to be "unfettered", they have driven more funds into our political process and have forced politicians to compete for contributions and air time rather than to focus on solving the problems our country faces. It's impossible to serve 2 masters - the corporate donations and the public electorate.
At the same time, our economy suffers due to our ability to keep up with corporate efficiency. It simply takes less man-hours to produce goods today. That lack directly contributes to the loss of good jobs at good wages, and further fuels the widening of the wealth distribution woes. This is not something the private sector is equipped to even care about - the remedy must come in the form of a private-public partnership. Failing this, our entire free-market economy must collapse - which will take our government along with it.Keith_LeBrun: In a way, I think most of the issues we'rehttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/Keith_LeBrun/political-polarization-fiscal-cliff_b_2379060_217400352.htmlHistory |Permalink |Share itThis comment has been down-ranked into oblivion. View comment You have not right to carry out this operation or Error this operation.Loading comments…
kf4053 Fans 5 hours ago ( 2:26 AM)I would offer two reflections. One, regarding, "a 'game theorist' could have predicted..." I've seen so often in my 65 years, anyone with a little sense of history, some common sense, and a newspaper could have foretold the outcome of many a failed political fiasco. For example, the US incursion into Afghanistan following the September 11 WTC attacks:
Who with but slight reason wouldn't have predicted abject failure? It's been 700 years and the Mongolians since any conqueror there lasted. They lasted 300 years. England and Russia, beginning in the 1800's couldn't even make a go of it there. England was booted around 1919 and the Soviets finally bailed in 1989.
Last, your closing assertion is already happening. Last night I filled up my Honda with gasoline. The young pump jockey at the station bemoaned a pickup that cost him a hundred dollars to fill and a commute which drank it all up in less than a week.
A hundred dollars, I rejoined. A day’s pay for a tank of gas! Man, I said, if any politician isn’t speaking up for policy that supports workers and the poor, vote him out.
Oh yeh, I know, he said emphatically. I graduated in government and finance.kf40: I would offer two reflections. One, regarding, "a 'game theorist'http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/kf40/political-polarization-fiscal-cliff_b_2379060_217396574.htmlHistory |Permalink |Share itThis comment has been down-ranked into oblivion. View comment You have not right to carry out this operation or Error this operation.Loading comments… GetRealView61 Fans 5 hours ago ( 2:24 AM)This is a long running show. Back in1996, my senator Barbara Boxer announced to an astonished audience in California that the age of Congressional gridlock was over. Little did she realize that it had only begun and would get much worse.GetRealView: This is a long running show. Back in1996, my senatorhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/GetRealView/political-polarization-fiscal-cliff_b_2379060_217396451.htmlHistory |Permalink |Share it
HUFFPOST SUPER USERnenitaBNot the talk. What good result would it hav174 Fans 10 minutes ago ( 7:15 AM)As many have predicted the road to recovery is bumpy whatever come out of the deal or talks. It would be a slow moving pace whether you like it or not the root of the problem had been so deep, quick fix is still remote.nenitaB: As many have predicted the road to recovery is bumpyhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/nenitaB/political-polarization-fiscal-cliff_b_2379060_217413770.htmlHistory |Permalink |Share itThis comment has been down-ranked into oblivion. View comment You have not right to carry out this operation or Error this operation.
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mintoreality is more interesting than ideology150 Fans 5 hours ago ( 2:20 AM)Congress and many state legislatures are currently doing everything in their power to make America a third world country. They don't want a middle class to exist at all, let alone an American dream.minto: Congress and many state legislatures are currently doing everything inhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/minto/political-polarization-fiscal-cliff_b_2379060_217396140.htmlHistory |Permalink |Share itThis comment has been down-ranked into oblivion. View comment You have not right to carry out this operation or Error this operation.
Loading comments… patricia duffy10 Fans 5 hours ago ( 2:16 AM)Term limits. It's the only way now to lessen the influence of lobbyists and crony capitalists. Term limits, my friends.patricia_duffy: Term limits. It's the only way now to lessen thehttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/patricia_duffy/political-polarization-fiscal-cliff_b_2379060_217395850.htmlHistory |Permalink |Share it JPHR276 Fans 2 hours ago ( 5:31 AM)Term limits will definitely help but the root is a dysfunctional winner takes all district based system encouraging partisanship through redistricting and establishing a duopoly on power with associated political elites for decades without any real competition.JPHR: Term limits will definitely help but the root is ahttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/JPHR/political-polarization-fiscal-cliff_b_2379060_217407464.htmlHistory |Permalink |Share itThis comment has been down-ranked into oblivion. View comment You have not right to carry out this operation or Error this operation.
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RantaI don't need no ****** badges.335 Fans 1 hour ago ( 6:01 AM)Public financing of elections would go farther. What would lobbyists do if congressmen didn't have to waste their time having to raise money? Perhaps a combination of both would be best.Ranta: Public financing of elections would go farther. What would lobbyistshttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/Ranta/political-polarization-fiscal-cliff_b_2379060_217409044.htmlHistory |Permalink |Share itThis comment has been down-ranked into oblivion. View comment You have not right to carry out this operation or Error this operation.
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Loading comments… Gussmith89 Fans 6 hours ago ( 1:40 AM)Mr. El-Elrian, when addressing...."Our self-inflicted fiscal cliff drama...." alludes to the tip of the ice berg when further he says: "Our politicians are scrambling to deal with a mess that they created all on their own". Truer words have not been written. Many many members of Congress have been in office for decades and voted for the massive overspending that they now can not ameliorate.Gussmith: Mr. El-Elrian, when addressing...."Our self-inflicted fiscal cliff drama...." alludes tohttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/Gussmith/political-polarization-fiscal-cliff_b_2379060_217392400.htmlHistory |Permalink |Share it JPHR276 Fans 2 hours ago ( 5:32 AM)Massive undertaxing or didn't you read his second point?JPHR: Massive undertaxing or didn't you read his second point?http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/JPHR/political-polarization-fiscal-cliff_b_2379060_217407514.htmlHistory |Permalink |Share itThis comment has been down-ranked into oblivion. View comment You have not right to carry out this operation or Error this operation.
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Bible Rocks199 Fans 6 hours ago ( 1:11 AM)"It is hard to deny the extent to which America has experienced a worsening in the distribution of income, wealth and opportunities in recent years. If we are not careful, this will tear at the social fabric that underpins a dynamic and prospering private sector."
We are already there.....disproportionate distribution of income is why healthcare is unaffordable......costing the govermnent billions yearly.....yet, GOP want to stand in the way.
They won't stop until they truly destroy the health of the country.......thankful, the people have the power to vote them out. Meanwhile we will watch them dig their own grave during the fiscal cliff debacle. ..so please proceed GOP.Bible_Rocks: "It is hard to deny the extent to which Americahttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/Bible_Rocks/political-polarization-fiscal-cliff_b_2379060_217389234.htmlHistory |Permalink |Share it Gussmith89 Fans 6 hours ago ( 1:43 AM)That voting out thing sounds good but the problem is that everyone likes their own representative. Voting anyone out is a rarity.Gussmith: That voting out thing sounds good but the problem ishttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/Gussmith/political-polarization-fiscal-cliff_b_2379060_217392717.htmlHistory |Permalink |Share itThis comment has been down-ranked into oblivion. View comment You have not right to carry out this operation or Error this operation.Loading comments… HUFFPOST SUPER USERCassidyK49 Fans 5 hours ago ( 2:01 AM)That partisan opinion is what you got from this op-ed?
The Democrats are all good guy?
Obama's Fiscal Cliff was a good idea?
The people who voted the Republicans in will do it again.
They blame the Democrats.
The only thing any of them are concerned about is reelection.
While they are in office they are on easy street. That is what they know. That is what they will work for.
They have healthcare. They have pensions. They have expense accounts. THEY are the 1%ers.CassidyK: That partisan opinion is what you got from this op-ed?http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/CassidyK/political-polarization-fiscal-cliff_b_2379060_217394588.htmlHistory |Permalink |Share itThis comment has been down-ranked into oblivion. View comment You have not right to carry out this operation or Error this operation.Loading comments…This comment has been down-ranked into oblivion. View comment You have not right to carry out this operation or Error this operation.
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