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Sanjay SanghoeeBanker, political commentator, author of thriller novel 'Merger'

GET UPDATES FROM Sanjay Sanghoee Like 400 Bankrupt Politics: The Republican Plan to Kill Our Economy Posted: 12/28/2012 10:30 pm React

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Forget the fiscal cliff. The real threat to the U.S. economy is not political stalemate in Washington but the Republican party itself.

From the time that President Obama first took office in 2009 through the elections in 2012, the GOP has been running on the platform of economic despair, and in fact, seems to have bet its entire future on it.

In the beginning it was easy, since the president had just inherited a massive financial crisis and a shattered economy that would take years to rebuild; all the Republicans had to do was stonewall any initiatives that would hasten a recovery, and wait. That gave them the edge they needed to rout the Democrats in the midterm elections. Following that, they adopted the strategy of blaming the financial stimulus package and Dodd-Frank for the continuing softness in the economy, which kept the pressure up on Obama and, more importantly, kept him on the defensive.

But now the landscape is different. Obama has four more years to do his thing, the disastrous Mitt Romney campaign has damaged the Republican party immeasurably, and the economy is visibly recovering, so the Republicans cannot just sit back and hope that everything will go wrong anymore. If the economy continues to grow, the president's second term will be a victory, period. That means the Republicans actually have to make sure it goes wrong -- or any hopes that they have of making meaningful gains in future elections will be dashed.

Which is why their new strategy is to actively derail the economy.

Think of it as the Republican long game -- if the U.S. falls back into a recession, the president's promises of a better future will be perceived as empty rhetoric and the Democrats will lose credibility, paving the way for Republican victories in 2014 and 2016. It may be pretty devious but it is also that simple.

To accomplish this goal, the Republicans seem to have settled on two angles of attack:

Cut Spending till it Hurts

Republican posturing on the fiscal cliff has revolved mostly around lower taxes for wealthy Americans, but what they really want is deep cuts in government spending (taxes are mainly a bargaining chip). The problem, of course, is that deep cuts in spending right at the cusp of economic recovery will likely send us back into a recession. From outright unemployment for federal workers to cuts in state and local government grants, spending cuts would stifle national growth almost overnight. The setbacks would impact nearly every sphere, including infrastructure, education, healthcare, financial reform, and consumer protection, leading to "domino effect" declines in consumer confidence, spending, commercial activity, employment, and ultimately the economy.

Granted we have a trillion-dollar deficit problem but deficit reduction also requires GDP growth and an increase in the tax base, which cannot happen in a declining economy; not to mention that any action that slows our momentum at this time would be counter-productive to the deficit in the long run since we will simply have to run up a bigger tab later.

The right approach would be to phase in spending cuts slowly and time them to succeed economic growth, not precede it. But that timeline would not suit the Republicans at all since it would take us further into Obama's term and enable him to take credit for a good economy. So, regardless of the fiscal cliff outcome, you can bet that the GOP will flog this horse well into next year and keep pushing for deeper and deeper cuts until they strike bone.

Manufacture Uncertainty

Nothing pours cold water on economic growth like uncertainty. When the rules of the game are defined clearly, even if they are unfavorable, all players can strategize accordingly and aim for success; but when businesses and consumers have no idea what is going to happen next, their plans just stall in the mire of nervousness. That is what happened during the debt ceiling debate of 2011 and in painful slow motion this year on the fiscal cliff. Despite dire warnings by economists of another recession if America goes over the cliff, and despite the financial soundness of letting the Bush tax cuts expire for the rich, the Republicans have done everything in their power to prevent a compromise from being reached. The net result has been an unnecessarily prolonged period of uncertainty and market tumult.

This is a clear-cut case of obstructionism with a purpose, and it will not stop with the fiscal cliff either. Christmas may be over but for the Republicans the first half of next year is an extended holiday season, with gifts ranging from another debt ceiling fight to further arguments on tax cuts and Wall Street reform all waiting to fall into their political laps. And they will exploit it all to create as much uncertainty about the future as they can, for that is the surest way to derail our economic progress and ensure that President Obama does not preside over a prosperous country for the next four years.

Compromise might help the Republican party regain its credibility with American voters but then Republicans have never been good at fighting from a positive place. They are much more comfortable playing offense, and that is why they will kill our economy if they can -- because it is their last, desperate, hope for survival.

So how will it stop?

It won't, unless the American public pulls their support of the party completely. Even if you agree with the Republicans ideologically, you should ask yourself whether a party that is willing to destroy your livelihood for political gain should be allowed to represent you at all... and then vote the opportunists out of office before they ruin the country!

SANJAY SANGHOEE has worked at leading investment banks Lazard Freres and Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein as well as at a multi-billion dollar hedge fund. He has an MBA from Columbia Business School and is the author of two financial thrillers, including "Merger" which Chicago Tribune called "Timely, Gripping, and Original". Please visit his Facebook page for more information.

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View AllFavorites Recency | Popularity Page: 1 2 Next › Last » (2 total) sanddcMan may think he rules -God is still in charge..348 Fans 47 minutes ago ( 5:40 AM)You God supposedly fearing republicans will reap every bad seed they sows sooners or later.sanddc: You God supposedly fearing republicans will reap every bad seedhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/sanddc/republican-obstruction_b_2377498_217407940.htmlHistory |Permalink |Share itThis comment has been down-ranked into oblivion. View comment You have not right to carry out this operation or Error this operation.

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gmcduffee 1 Fans 53 minutes ago ( 5:34 AM)The Republican party continues to flog the myths of the Hanna-McKinley era, and promote an archaic and reactionary program totally out of contact with today's economic realities such as supranational corporatism.

Even when an apparently viable economic program/policy such as supply side economics is proposed, they are unable to fully implement it. To be sure the tax rates on the high earners have been slashed and many other tax preferences created, but Supply Side economics has another requirement which has never been implemented, namely higher interest rates both to promote investment and savings and more rationally allocate capital away from get rich quick schemes such as commodity speculation and the carry trade and to in real high value added operations with well paying jobs, which in turn generates more tax income, even with the lower tax rates. As it is now, unless you are one of the 1%, we have the worst results of ultra low taxes and capital mal-allocation on a massive scale.gmcduffee: The Republican party continues to flog the myths of thehttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/gmcduffee/republican-obstruction_b_2377498_217407613.htmlHistory |Permalink |Share itThis comment has been down-ranked into oblivion. View comment You have not right to carry out this operation or Error this operation.

Loading comments… JPHR 276 Fans 1 hour ago ( 5:13 AM)Naomi Klein's "The Shock Doctrine" illustrated how economic crises has been repeatedly used by the Chicago School of economic ideology to hover wealth from the lower and middle class to the already obscenely wealthy. By the way proponents of the Chicago school have publicly acknowledged this use of shock and welcomed the opportunity. Still lacking the opportunity like in Chile and Argentine for a military junta to force this trough applying this to the US requires at least a deepening of the economic crises to scare the population into following this path. So you know the Republicans party's script.JPHR: Naomi Klein's "The Shock Doctrine" illustrated how economic crises hashttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/JPHR/republican-obstruction_b_2377498_217406514.htmlHistory |Permalink |Share itThis comment has been down-ranked into oblivion. View comment You have not right to carry out this operation or Error this operation.

Loading comments… HUFFPOST SUPER USERmaninlawww.kitchensinkradio.podomatic.com498 Fans 2 hours ago ( 4:21 AM)It's not like Obama will be President forever, so I don't understand this GOP insistance on doing whatever it takes to bring the country down in order to make the President look bad. What, are Republicans just flat out ignoring the results of the 2012 elections and assuming voters won't notice them SABOTAGING THE PRESIDENT (THE COUNTRY) at every step...AGAIN!

Republicans, just admit that Reaganomics didn't work and step away from the body.maninla: It's not like Obama will be President forever, so Ihttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/maninla/republican-obstruction_b_2377498_217404030.htmlHistory |Permalink |Share itThis comment has been down-ranked into oblivion. View comment You have not right to carry out this operation or Error this operation.

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HUFFPOST SUPER USERbooker52avid reader2709 Fans 2 hours ago ( 4:18 AM)Note, the republicans already screwed over the economy, now they are just stomping on it to make sure it stays downbooker52: Note, the republicans already screwed over the economy, now theyhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/booker52/republican-obstruction_b_2377498_217403893.htmlHistory |Permalink |Share itThis comment has been down-ranked into oblivion. View comment You have not right to carry out this operation or Error this operation.

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Don Oldenburg 2 Fans 3 hours ago ( 3:51 AM)Now let's get to real entitlement type reform:

1. Corporate Welfare Type Payments to Huge Businesses - $92 Billion a Year
2. Elite Tax Advantages (The 1%) - $66 Billion a Year
3. U.S. Government Officials (Do Nothing Reasonable) Annual Unearned Salaries - $91 Million a Year

Total Entitlement Cuts over 10 years - Over $1.5 TrillionDon_Oldenburg: Now let's get to real entitlement type reform: 1. Corporatehttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/Don_Oldenburg/republican-obstruction_b_2377498_217402397.htmlHistory |Permalink |Share it

HUFFPOST SUPER USERbooker52avid reader2709 Fans 2 hours ago ( 4:19 AM)True storybooker52: True storyhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/booker52/republican-obstruction_b_2377498_217403916.htmlHistory |Permalink |Share itThis comment has been down-ranked into oblivion. View comment You have not right to carry out this operation or Error this operation.

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HUFFPOST SUPER USERjonser 47 Fans 7 minutes ago ( 6:20 AM)Welcome Don, Keep punching out the facts.jonser: Welcome Don, Keep punching out the facts.http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/jonser/republican-obstruction_b_2377498_217410109.htmlHistory |Permalink |Share itThis comment has been down-ranked into oblivion. View comment You have not right to carry out this operation or Error this operation.

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HUFFPOST SUPER USERTheTightwireGuyAttempting to balance reason and passion304 Fans 3 hours ago ( 3:11 AM)"From the time that President Obama first took office in 2009 through the elections in 2012, the GOP has been running on the platform of economic despair, and in fact, seems to have bet its entire future on it."
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Ironicly, communists in Europe immediately after World War II were hoping that the economic despair caused by the damaged European economy would help them win at the polls. The Marshall Plan initiated under Truman was very effective in helping to boost the European economy, which in turn reduced the appeal of the Communist parties among Europes voting public.TheTightwireGuy: "From the time that President Obama first took office inhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/TheTightwireGuy/republican-obstruction_b_2377498_217399876.htmlHistory |Permalink |Share it

HUFFPOST SUPER USERalexeizSince I lost all hope, I feel much better!251 Fans 2 hours ago ( 3:58 AM)It is not ironical that the methods of far right resemble those of Soviet communists, both are (or were) based on rigid faulty ideology and both believe that the goal always justifies the means. It doesn't matter that ones are far right and the others appeared to be far left. As Hegel said, every idea, taken to the extreme, becomes its opposite.alexeiz: It is not ironical that the methods of far righthttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/alexeiz/republican-obstruction_b_2377498_217402814.htmlHistory |Permalink |Share itThis comment has been down-ranked into oblivion. View comment You have not right to carry out this operation or Error this operation.

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HUFFPOST SUPER USERAndrew Stead 31 Fans 4 hours ago ( 2:29 AM)Surely by now it's time for a constitutional amendment to clean up politics - constitutionally define campaign finance, prevent gerrymandering, break the stranglehold of the two-party system on congressional politics (I'll grant that it still has a purpose in the Presidential election), maybe even include some kind of proportional representation. Nothing else is going to to it, and we need a solid grassroots movement to go for it. We can't trust political parties to reform themselves, because every serving politician is a beneficiary of the system as it currently stands.Andrew_Stead: Surely by now it's time for a constitutional amendment tohttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/Andrew_Stead/republican-obstruction_b_2377498_217396878.htmlHistory |Permalink |Share it JPHR 276 Fans 1 hour ago ( 5:19 AM)The problem is that any change to the constitution is too easy to block. Given the rules it nearly requires a majority of one party in every state. Goes to show that this winner takes all district system is truly outdated. However I doubt if ever such majority came into force it would be sensible enough to implement a more representative proportional representation system.JPHR: The problem is that any change to the constitution ishttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/JPHR/republican-obstruction_b_2377498_217406845.htmlHistory |Permalink |Share itThis comment has been down-ranked into oblivion. View comment You have not right to carry out this operation or Error this operation.

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mintoreality is more interesting than ideology150 Fans 4 hours ago ( 2:04 AM)This is what I am thinking also. It is the only thing that explains GOP behavior. They want America to fail. The really scary part is that the business leaders and CEO's aren't putting a stop to it even though it has to be hurting their bottom line.minto: This is what I am thinking also. It is thehttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/minto/republican-obstruction_b_2377498_217394813.htmlHistory |Permalink |Share itThis comment has been down-ranked into oblivion. View comment You have not right to carry out this operation or Error this operation.

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tiffany lamp 30 Fans 5 hours ago ( 1:35 AM)A sad day in America whenever partisan interests trump national interests.Well written commentary!tiffany_lamp: A sad day in America whenever partisan interests trump nationalhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/tiffany_lamp/republican-obstruction_b_2377498_217391897.htmlHistory |Permalink |Share itThis comment has been down-ranked into oblivion. View comment You have not right to carry out this operation or Error this operation.

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tiffany lamp 30 Fans 5 hours ago ( 1:32 AM)This is a very sad commentary on the issue of politics taking the "low road". Americans are paying attention this time around, and rest assured they will remember! Whatever happened to government, "of the people, by the people, and for the people"?tiffany_lamp: This is a very sad commentary on the issue ofhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/tiffany_lamp/republican-obstruction_b_2377498_217391510.htmlHistory |Permalink |Share itThis comment has been down-ranked into oblivion. View comment You have not right to carry out this operation or Error this operation.

Loading comments… YOKEL13Gimme more! - unofficial GOP motto1542 Fans 5 hours ago ( 1:30 AM)This is one of the best explanations of Republican shenanigans I have read.

There is one more dimension to the CONservative scheme: the "starve the beast" strategy, the objective of which is the virtual crippling of the federal government, regardless of consequences. The tactic is to spend like drunken sailors when Republicans are in control, then blame Democrats when they happen to get control of the government. As Dick Cheney famously said (in December of 2003): "Reagan taught us that deficits don't matter." Republicans had no trouble voting for deficit spending and debt ceiling increases during the Bush, Jr., years. Why not?

When Obama took office, suddenly Republicans wanted to say everything was his fault: the recession, deficits, and increasing debt, none of which was caused by President Obama. I'm not saying that George W. Bush necessarily caused it... some of it was circumstantial. But if a President is to be held responsible, Bush would be the guy.YOKEL13: This is one of the best explanations of Republican shenaniganshttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/YOKEL13/republican-obstruction_b_2377498_217391364.htmlHistory |Permalink |Share it HUFFPOST SUPER USERmaninlawww.kitchensinkradio.podomatic.com498 Fans 2 hours ago ( 4:24 AM)Bush? Ohh, old George HW Bush. Sad to hear he is not well. It will be timely when he passes, so soon after Stormin' Norman, don't you thinkmaninla: Bush? Ohh, old George HW Bush. Sad to hear hehttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/maninla/republican-obstruction_b_2377498_217404209.htmlHistory |Permalink |Share itThis comment has been down-ranked into oblivion. View comment You have not right to carry out this operation or Error this operation.

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Loading comments… TexiCali 634 Fans 6 hours ago (12:20 AM)This is an excellent, intelligent post. Unfortunately, there are too many low-information voters out there who will continue to vote against their own self-interests and will play right into the GOP's plan.TexiCali: This is an excellent, intelligent post. Unfortunately, there are toohttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/TexiCali/republican-obstruction_b_2377498_217382790.htmlHistory |Permalink |Share it

HUFFPOST SUPER USERTheTightwireGuyAttempting to balance reason and passion304 Fans 3 hours ago ( 3:16 AM)Hear! Hear!TheTightwireGuy: Hear! Hear!http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/TheTightwireGuy/republican-obstruction_b_2377498_217400247.htmlHistory |Permalink |Share itThis comment has been down-ranked into oblivion. View comment You have not right to carry out this operation or Error this operation.

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HUFFPOST SUPER USERsoma77Author, Speaker, Retreat Facilitator1001 Fans 6 hours ago (12:13 AM)Republicans have turned their back on conservatives, Americans, elderly, sick, students, middle class, firemen, policemen, teachers, middle class, minorities and women. The only think of money.soma77: Republicans have turned their back on conservatives, Americans, elderly, sick,http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/soma77/republican-obstruction_b_2377498_217381832.htmlHistory |Permalink |Share itThis comment has been down-ranked into oblivion. View comment You have not right to carry out this operation or Error this operation.

Loading comments… FreeInColorado 0 Fans 6 hours ago (12:10 AM)Which is the lesser of two evils? To stop the bleeding on debt burden that increases at a rate we can never recover from by allowing ourselves to over the cliff thereby forcing higher taxes on everyone and reducing spending on mikitary programs we clearly don't needZ. Or to blame the Republicans for honoring the promise they made to the American people they represent (roughly half of the population) by demanding spending reductions? A kingdom divided against itself will fall and it's simply a matter of time. Say goodbye to the America we once knew and say hello to the new America where the desire for change and redistribution of wealth trumps common sense. History proves that when lessons of the past are ignored then history is destined to repeat itself. Anyone denying this is either just plain stupid or has no interest in learning from the past.FreeInColorado: Which is the lesser of two evils? To stop thehttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/FreeInColorado/republican-obstruction_b_2377498_217381480.htmlHistory |Permalink |Share it

lookforwardangel 38 Fans 36 minutes ago ( 5:50 AM)" Even if you agree with the Republicans ideologically, you should ask yourself whether a party that is willing to destroy your livelihood for political gain should be allowed to represent you at all... "lookforwardangel: " Even if you agree with the Republicans ideologically, youhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/lookforwardangel/republican-obstruction_b_2377498_217408470.htmlHistory |Permalink |Share itThis comment has been down-ranked into oblivion. View comment You have not right to carry out this operation or Error this operation.

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