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Showing posts with label Chris. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Chris. Show all posts

Wednesday, November 6, 2013

Chris Weigant: The IRS Scandal, and Hoover's Brutalist Legacy

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The scandal currently unfolding at the Internal Revenue Service is actually being downplayed by some who feel that tax investigations into groups advocating an anti-tax attitude is more than justified on the face of it. Admittedly, all the facts are not yet in, but the scandal started when the IRS itself actually publicly admitted wrongdoing. So while there's a question of who knew about it (and who should be fired), the fact that scandalous behavior was happening isn't really even in question. Because it was, indeed, scandalous behavior. Any time a federal agency decides to intimidate those in the political arena in any way, large or small, it should be seen as a scandal by everyone -- no matter your political leanings. Because we've seen what happens when this sort of thing is allowed and encouraged, and it isn't a pretty sight.

The power to use the legal and police services of the federal government as leverage against your political opponents is a tempting one indeed, which is why both parties have done so in the past when they thought they could get away with such blatant violations of the Constitution. We've even lived through a very long period when this power got so out of control that one man held blackmailable material on United States presidents, Supreme Court justices, and too many members of Congress to count. This information was gathered systematically, by illegally wiretapping phone lines and bugging hotel rooms, as well as plenty of other underhanded (and, again, unconstitutional) methods. The man behind this effort was none other than J. Edgar Hoover.

Hoover was the director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation for an astounding 48 years. Just think about the power that implies, for a second. Hoover led the agency before it was even named the FBI (it was called the Bureau of Investigations when Hoover took the helm in 1924). During his near-five-decade reign as America's "top cop," Hoover wielded an enormous amount of power -- so enormous that while two presidents actually considered replacing him (Truman and Kennedy), neither did so because they feared the consequences of doing so. Making Hoover, in essence, more powerful than the president.

Hoover held this power through knowing dirty secrets. He vacuumed up (ironically, given his last name) dirty secrets on everyone he could, and held onto the information in his files until he had a use for it.

Hoover was first given a truly free hand by a Democratic president, Franklin Delano Roosevelt. FDR benefited from Hoover's services, as when he was provided with damaging information about those running against him for the presidency. But Hoover also had an abiding dislike of Eleanor Roosevelt, whom he also kept an extensive file on. After his death, when Congress did belatedly investigate Hoover, it was found that every president from FDR through Richard Nixon had benefited from the FBI bugging their political opponents. That's "every" -- as in "both Democratic and Republican administrations."

It wasn't just the White House, all of Washington lived in fear of Hoover. Hoover's budget requests to Congress were unquestioningly filled, every single year -- in fact, from 1924 through 1971, Congress did not hold a single public hearing on the FBI's budget. Hoover's wiretapping included 12 Supreme Court justices as well, and influenced the selection process of others who might have wound up justices. Hoover kept files on important journalists and publishers, as well, which he would use to halt bad press before it happened. Hoover fed information to Joe McCarthy, whose crusade was not only against communists, but also homosexuals.

This was just within the federal government. In the political realm outside of elected officials, Hoover was just as industrious collecting dirt on anyone in the public eye, including an obsession with Hollywood. But Hoover's real legacy was the program known as COINTELPRO, which was a multi-decade effort to infiltrate, subvert, and destroy any group or leader deemed "subversive." This included people from Martin Luther King Jr. to John Lennon. It also included just about anyone who was anti-war, for any reason.

In short, while Hoover used his power over the government itself he also used his power against people critical of the government. This is, not to put too fine a point on it, un-American. It was a disgusting abuse of federal power, on a scale never seen in the country before and (hopefully) never to be seen again. Hoover's power was never even effectively challenged, because as everyone knew, he "had a file on everybody."

It's easy, in hindsight, to condemn J. Edgar Hoover. I can write this article without the fear that an FBI agent is going to show up at my door tomorrow and start asking pointed questions and issuing veiled threats, or that my phone will be bugged tomorrow. That would not have been true when Hoover was alive and in charge, however.

But taking a stand against such behavior should be automatic, and non-partisan. I am not remotely suggesting that whatever was going on at the Internal Revenue Service was even in the same league as Hoover's FBI, but it should be seen as the first step in a similar direction. Equating the two, however, would at this point be like comparing a petty shoplifter to Bernie Madoff. They're miles apart, in scope and severity, and no matter how high up the scandal reaches it will likely never even be in the same league as Hoover. The only way that could ever happen is if the IRS spent the next half-century abusing power politically, which is (quite obviously, now) not going to happen.

If the federal government decides that the definition of "non-profit" is being abused, then they should have launched an investigation into all non-profits who have entered the political realm. This would include the Tea Party groups, most likely, but it would also include a much wider array of organizations -- including even perhaps churches on both sides of the political divide which have been pushing the limits of what they're allowed to do politically for years, now. To put it another way, "Justice" is supposed to be blind in these situations. The IRS is not the FBI -- but it is indeed an arm of the federal government with a lot of leverage and interaction with everyone in America. It needs to be absolutely and unequivocally above partisan politics. That's the only way Americans will have any shred of trust in the organization.

So, yes, this is a scandal. How far it reaches and who needs to be fired are subjects which have not fully been plumbed yet. There are going to be future revelations, and heads should indeed roll. Just on general principle. If you condemn the federal government for investigating anti-war groups, for instance, then you must be morally and intellectually consistent and condemn them equally for targeting right-wing groups as well.

Because no matter which side it starts on, this sort of thing -- if left unchecked -- will eventually begin to consume everyone on both sides of the political aisle. Remember -- FDR unleashed Hoover, not a Republican.

I started with the thought that this sort of thing is "not a pretty sight." I close on an upbeat note in the same vein. A few months back, the federal government announced it was seriously considering moving the FBI headquarters out to the suburbs, and selling the land the current headquarters -- the "J. Edgar Hoover Building" -- is on to private interests. One assumes that this means the building itself will be torn down (or at the very least, renamed). Harry Reid, in 2001, tried to get Hoover's name removed from the building, saying his name was "a stain on the building." He failed to convince the Senate to do so, though, shameful as the name still is.

The building itself is rather ugly, designed with an exposed concrete exterior. The name of the style of architecture (you just can't make this stuff up) is "Brutalism." The day the FBI pulls this building down and christens a new headquarters somewhere in the Maryland or Virginia suburbs -- named after some other FBI luminary, one hopes -- will be a glad day indeed for all Americans. We've had one era of federal "Brutalism" with Hoover's name on it. We certainly don't need another. The way for it not to ever happen again is to stomp out such temptations whenever and wherever they are found, regardless of how small or unimportant they may seem at the time. Also, to stop naming buildings after the perpetrators of such abuse, of course.

[Program Note: The facts for this article come from many sources, which includes the book One Nation Under Sex by Larry Flynt and David Eisenbach, Ph.D., specifically chapter 5, "America's Sex Czar" (pp. 133-167). Scoff at the source if you'd like, but the book is fully footnoted and researched, and merely provides a handy synopsis of facts asserted by many other sources.]

Chris Weigant blogs at:
ChrisWeigant.com

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
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Monday, July 29, 2013

Chris Harnick: One Of 'The Good Wife's' Best Episodes Ever

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GET UPDATES FROM Chris Harnick   91 One Of 'The Good Wife's' Best Episodes Ever Posted: 03/24/2013 10:45 pm Follow , , , John Noble , Stockard Channing , The Good Wife , The Good Wife Death Of a Client , The Good Wife Death Of a Client Recap , The Good Wife Recap , The Good Wife Season 4 , TV News
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Note: Do not read on if you have not yet seen Season 4, Episode 19 of CBS' "The Good Wife," titled "Death of a Client."

"The Good Wife" killed John Noble and turned his death into one of the best episodes of the series. Ever.

In "Death of a Client," Alicia's night on the town with Peter at the Shamrock Dinner is ruined by the news of Matthew's ("Fringe" star Noble) murder. The police question Alicia about Matthew, a previously unseen client until now. Their interaction in the episode is 1. Adorable and 2. Told through flashbacks. It's a departure for "The Good Wife," but one that works well in terms of the pacing and tone of the episode. Noble's character was quite eccentric -- would you have him any other way? -- and Alicia described him as very litigious. The police lied to Alicia and said they found her address in the GPS of the murderer's car in an effort to get her to break attorney/client privilege. Sneaky cops. It's that willingness to sue that ended Matthew's life. It wasn't the CIA, a crooked cop or the phone company that did him in, rather it was the owner of a barking dog he previously sued. "Have you ever met a dog lover?" Kalinda asked. It was a court-less episode with no real case, which was quite the treat and a very needed change of pace.

"This is America. You can sue anybody!"
John Noble was delightfully entertaining as Matthew. There was just the right amount of him. He wasn't overwhelming by any means. The last scene with him and Alicia was the sweetest.

When Alicia thought her life was possibly in danger, she asked her mother Veronica (the wonderful Stockard Channing) to take her kids to safety. They didn't get very far and ended up in a bar. It was there that Veronica started revealing family secrets, which was great. The kids didn't annoy me for once and whenever viewers are given more insight into Alicia's past, the more I appreciate the character. According to Veronica, Alicia was quite the wild child. Also Zach slept with Becca (!) and uber religious Grace is dating that kid. "The more you know." Can't wait for more Alicia/Veronica interaction. Also, can we get Stockard Channing to stick around more? Please and thank you.

Over in election land, Matthew Perry returned as Mike, the Republican candidate for governor. He was up to his old tricks (lying) and being a big ole schmuck. "Die choking on your own blood, please," Alica said to him. After lying to the cardinal about why Alicia left with the police, Peter punches Mike in the bathroom and makes it look like he fell after drinking too much. The cardinal didn't end up endorsing either candidate, to the delight of Eli.

Meanwhile, in dangling plot thread news:

Cary grabbed Kalinda's hand and, earlier in the episode, she was at a bar with a woman.

Alicia seemed pretty conflicted with letting go of Will, but this could be it. "We're keeping each other from moving on ... It's passed and I'm pretending it's not. I'm being selfish. I mean, even talking about it here, I'm being selfish. I'm back with Peter. Now this has to end," she told him holding back tears.

Amanda Peet is still around, lusting after Will.

And the most important one ... Will Diane become a Supreme Court Justice!? I mean, you drop that possibility in front of me and then you leave it there? How rude, "Good Wife." How rude. Peter approached Diane about being his nominee for the spot ... could she leave Lockhart/Gardner behind? I'm leaning toward no, but I'd love to see her say yes. I'm just not sure how they'd keep her around and in the mix if she did.

"Death of a Client" was a wonderful episode of "The Good Wife." Why can't they all be like this?

Gasp count
: 2.

"The Good Wife" airs Sundays, 9 p.m. ET on CBS.

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"Runnin’ With The Devil"

Archie Panjabi as Kalinda Sharma.

Kalinda (Archie Panjabi, right) reluctantly agrees to train Robyn (Jess Weixler, left) when Will and Diane decide to hire a second investigator at the firm

Kalinda (Archie Panjabi, right) reluctantly agrees to train Robyn (Jess Weixler, left) when Will and Diane decide to hire a second investigator at the firm.

"Runnin' with the Devil"

Jess Weixler as Robyn, who is being reluctantly trained by Kalinda to be a second investigator at the firm.

"Runnin' with the Devil"

Audra McDonald as Liz, Alicia’s law school classmate and current courtroom foe.

"Runnin' with the Devil"

Alicia (Julianna Margulies, right) speaks with her old law school classmate – and current courtroom foe – Liz (Audra McDonald).

"Runnin' with the Devil"

Jailed drug dealer Lemond Bishop requests that Alicia (Julianna Margulies) work with his other lawyer, Charles Lester (Wallace Shawn), but soon begins to suspect his motives.

"Going for the Gold"

"Going for the Gold"

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"Red Team/Blue Team"

"Boom De Ya Da"

Democratic strategist Frank Landau (Mike Pniewski, right) forces Eli (Alan Cumming, left) to work with a second campaign manager.

"Boom De Ya Da"

Eli (Alan Cumming, right) is forced to work with Jordan Karahalios (T.R. Knight, left) a savvy campaign manager.

"Boom De Ya Da"

Alan Cumming as Eli Gold.

"Boom De Ya Da"

Eli (Alan Cumming, right) is forced to work with Jordan Karahalios (T.R. Knight, left) a savvy campaign manager.

"Boom De Ya Da"

T.R. Knight as Jordan Karahalios.

"Boom De Ya Da"

Julianna Margulies as Alicia Florrick.

"Boom De Ya Da"

Eli (Alan Cumming, right) is forced to work with Jordan Karahalios (T.R. Knight, left) a savvy campaign manager.

"A Defense of Marriage"

Alicia (Julianna Margulies, left) and Zach (Graham Phillips, right) are in for a long evening when both her and Peter’s mothers are in attendance.

"A Defense of Marriage"

Peter (Chris Noth, right) speaks with his mother’s caretaker, Cristian (Yul Vazquez, left).

"A Defense of Marriage"

Stockard Channing as Veronica, Chris Noth as Peter Florrick.

"A Defense of Marriage"

Jackie (Mary Beth Peil, right) speaks with her caretaker, Cristian (Yul Vazquez, left).

"A Defense of Marriage"

Alicia’s (Julianna Margulies, left) mother, Veronica (Stockard Channing, right) shows up requesting moral – and legal – support.

"A Defense of Marriage"

Jackie (Mary Beth Peil, left), has a tense conversation with Alicia’s mother, Veronica (Stockard Channing, right).

"A Defense of Marriage"

Alicia’s mother, Veronica (Stockard Channing) shows up requesting moral -- and legal -- support.

Here Comes The Judge

Nick’s (Mark Warren. right) latest actions make Kalinda (Archie Panjabi, left) suspicious.

Here Comes The Judge

Nick’s (Mark Warren. right) latest actions make Kalinda (Archie Panjabi, left) suspicious.

Here Comes The Judge

Nick’s (Mark Warren) latest actions make Kalinda (Archie Panjabi) suspicious.

Here Comes The Judge

Alicia (Julianna Margulies, left) and Diane (Christine Baranski, center) help during a hearing to determine if the judge on Will’s (Josh Charles, right) latest case should be removed for bias.

Here Comes The Judge

Laura (Amanda Peet, left) must scramble when Will accuses the judge (Judd Hirsch, right) in their case of being biased.

Here Comes The Judge

Will (Josh Charles, center) runs into Judge Creary (Judd Hirsch, right) and Giada (Karen Olivo, left).

Here Comes The Judge

Laura Hellinger (Amanda Peet. left) questions Will (Josh Charles, right) during a hearing to determine if the judge on Will’s case is biased and should be removed.

Here Comes The Judge

Judge Dunaway (Kurt Fuller) hears arguments on whether another judge should be removed from a trial.

Here Comes The Judge

Julianna Margulies as Alicia Florrick.

Here Comes The Judge

Alicia (Julianna Margulies, right) and Laura Hellinger (Amanda Peet, left) argue whether or not Judge Creary (Judd Hirsch, center) should be removed from hearing a case.

Here Comes The Judge

Josh Charles as Will Gardner

Here Comes The Judge

Alicia (Julianna Margulies, left) and Diane (Christine Baranski, right) help during a hearing to determine if the judge on Will’s latest case should be removed for bias.

Here Comes The Judge

Amanda Peet as Laura.

Here Comes The Judge

Christine Baranski as Diane Lockhart

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FOLLOW TV 15k   Get Alerts #ad_bottom_article_text {margin-bottom: 15px} TV RecapsCBSReality-FreeNote: Do not read on if you have not yet seen Season 4, Episode 19 of CBS' "The Good Wife," titled "Death of a Client.""The Good Wife" killed John Noble and turned his death into one of the best epi...Note: Do not read on if you have not yet seen Season 4, Episode 19 of CBS' "The Good Wife," titled "Death of a Client.""The Good Wife" killed John Noble and turned his death into one of the best epi...     related content on huffpost PHOTO: Daniel Day-Lewis Gets Close To Lincoln PHOTO: Daniel Day-Lewis Gets Close To Lincoln Who's Who Guide To The Cast Of 'Lincoln' Who's Who Guide To The Cast Of 'Lincoln' Pre-Order 'Lincoln' Now Pre-Order 'Lincoln' Now Most Popular Steven Simpson Gay Teen Burned Gay British Teen Dies After Being Set On Fire At Birthday Party Powerball Ticket For Massive Powerball Jackpot Sold In New Jersey Jessica Simpson Pregnant PHOTO: Jessica Simpson's Pregnant Look Is Gorgeous Amanda Bynes Family Amanda Bynes' Family Concerned About Her Well-Being Ford India Ad Ford Apologizes After Shocking Ad Mock Up Posted Starbucks Gay Marriage Starbucks CEO Smacks Down Anti-Gay Marriage Shareholder Ashamed Man 4 Major Red Flags You Should Never Ignore Eva Mendes Shock Collar Eva Mendes Tested Her Dog's Shock Collar ... On Herself Gun Deaths Us Newtown American Tragedy: Thousands Of Gun Deaths Since Newtown Antonio Santiago Teens Arrested In Slaying Of 1-Year-Old Stick Figure Family LOOK: Well That's One Way To Show You're Single... Antonio Santiago Mother: 'He Shot My Baby Right In The Head' Asteroid Dinosaurs Asteroid NOT To Blame For Dinosaur Extinction, Scientists Say Spartacus Manu Bennett 'Spartacus' Video Recap: Manu Bennett On Crixus' Journey And Fan Support My Chemical Romance Split BREAKING UP North Dakota Personhood North Dakota Becomes First State To Pass Fetal Personhood Amendment Matthew Lannon Gay Marriage Speech WATCH: 12-Year-Old Gives Amazing Gay Marriage Speech In Rhode Island Quantico Shooting 3 Dead In Shooting On Quantico Marine Base Car Seat The Safety Concern Parents Need To Take Much More Seriously Follow HuffPost Email Facebook Twitter Google Plus RSS Mobile HuffPost Daily Brief TV Get top stories and blogs posts emailed to you each day.

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Saturday, July 13, 2013

San Bernardino County Sheriff On Chris Dorner Standoff: 'This Is A Learning Event'

San Bernardino County Sheriff John McMahon on Tuesday gave his first interview since the deadly Feb. 12 standoff between disgruntled former Los Angeles police officer Chris Dorner and deputies in the San Bernardino Mountains.

Sitting in his office at the Sheriff's Department, McMahon, who had been sworn in as Sheriff less than two months before Dorner engaged sheriff's deputies in a deadly gun battle in Seven Oaks, reflected on the magnitude of the event and the impact it had on the law enforcement community.

"This type of an event is tragic, and no law enforcement leader ever wants to be in that position -- where you lose an officer and one gets seriously injured in a gun battle," McMahon said. "It's tragic.

It's terrible and I hope I'm never in that position again. "

Dorner is believed to have taken his own life after a sheriff's SWAT team inserted pyrotechnic tear gas into the cabin in which Dorner barricaded himself on Glass Road, above Angelus Oaks.

He didn't go quietly. Dorner shot and killed Deputy Jeremiah MacKay and seriously wounded his partner, Deputy Alex Collins, prior to his own fiery death.

Dorner, who launched a killing spree to send a message about his claims of corruption at the Los Angeles Police Department following what he said was his wrongful termination, is also suspected of killing the daughter of a retired LAPD captain, her fiance, and a Riverside police officer, as well as seriously wounding that officer's partner.

The standoff drew a throng of police officers from agencies across Southern California: Los Angeles, Irvine, the CHP, the Forest Service and Cal Fire.

But all eyes were on the San Bernardino County Sheriff's Department, which came under aggressive media scrutiny for its use of the pyrotechnic tear gas. One investigative journalist, Max Blumenthal, said in an interview the department engaged in an "extrajudicial execution" of Dorner.

McMahon dismissed such criticism, standing by his initial statement that the department did nothing wrong and its tactics were by the book. He said Dorner was given plenty of verbal commands, via a public address system, to exit the cabin and surrender, but he didn't.

The SWAT team first shot cold tear gas into the cabin, which didn't draw out Dorner. So the pyrotechnic tear gas, which emits a higher concentration of gas, was used, which ignited the cabin, McMahon said, Shortly thereafter, a single distinct gunshot, unlike the volley of gunshots that were fired from the cabin during the gun battle, was heard from inside the cabin, followed by silence.

McMahon said everyone in law enforcement should study and learn from the event.

"As I thought about this, if it was not our department involved in this event, we would be watching this event on TV, looking at what they were doing and asking ourselves, 'If this occurred in our county, would we be prepared to deal with it, and how would we deal with it?'" McMahon said. "So this is a learning event for law enforcement across the country. Clearly, everybody can learn from an event like this. "

Below, pictures from the manhunt and siege of Christopher Dorner.

Loading Slideshow...

In this image taken from video provided by KABC-TV, the cabin in Big Bear, Calif. where ex-Los Angeles police officer Christopher Dorner is believed to be barricaded inside is in flames Tuesday, Feb. 12, 2013. (AP Photo/KABC-TV) MANDATORY CREDIT: KABC-TV

In this image taken from video provided by KABC-TV, the cabin in Big Bear, Calif. where ex-Los Angeles police officer Christopher Dorner is believed to be barricaded inside is in flames Tuesday, Feb. 12, 2013. (AP Photo/KABC-TV) MANDATORY CREDIT: KABC-TV

Los Angeles Police Commander Andrew Smith, second from left, expresses condolences for the death of a San Bernardino County deputy, as he briefs the media about the shootout scene in Big Bear that allegedly involves triple-murder suspect Christopher Jordan Dorner, during a late news conference in front of the Police Administration Building in Los Angeles, Tuesday, Feb. 12, 2013. Lt. Bill Whalen, of the Irvine Police Department, far left, and LAPD Officer Norma Eisenman, right, stand with Smith. (AP Photo/Damian Dovarganes)

Los Angeles Police Commander Andrew Smith, left, expresses condolences for the death of a San Bernardino County deputy, as he briefs the media about the shootout scene in Big Bear that allegedly involves triple-murder suspect Christopher Jordan Dorner, during a late news conference in front of the Police Administration Building in Los Angeles, Tuesday, Feb. 12, 2013. Lt. Bill Whalen, of the Irvine Police Department, middle and LAPD officer Norma Eisenman, right, stand with Smith. (AP Photo/Damian Dovarganes)

Cindy Bachman, public information officer for the San Bernardino County Sheriff's Department, talks about the hunt for accused killer and fired Los Angeles police Officer Christopher Dorner in Angelus Oaks, Caif., Tuesday, Feb. 12, 2013. (AP Photo/Chris Carlson)

A Redlands Police officer walks near a road blockade near the entrance to the San Bernardino National Forest in southern California after Christopher Dorner, a fugitive ex-Los Angeles cop sought in three killings, engaged in a shootout with authorities that wounded two officers in the San Bernardino Mountains near Big Bear Lake, Tuesday, Feb. 12, 2013. (AP Photo/The Sun, Gabriel Luis Acosta) VENTURA COUNTY STAR OUT; RIVERSIDE PRESS-ENTERPRISE OUT; THE VICTOR VALLEY DAILY PRESS OUT

YUCAIPA, CA - FEBRUARY 12: Redlands police officers secure at a blockade during a manhunt for the former Los Angeles Police Department officer Christopher Dorner who is suspected of triple murder on February 12, 2013 in Yucaipa, California. Dorner barricaded himself in a cabin near Big Bear, California and is in a standoff with authorities after shooting two police officers, killing one and wounding the other. Dorner, a former Los Angeles Police Department officer and Navy Reserve veteran, is wanted in connection with the deaths of an Irvine couple and a Riverside police officer. (Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images)

Shantel Cardiel (L) and Frank Cardiel hold up signs in support of fugitive triple murder suspect Christopher Dorner along the road in San Bernardino, California n February 12, 2013. Fugitive former US cop Christopher Dorner exchanged gunfire with police near a Californian ski resort where his burnt-out truck was found, reports said. The 33-year-old was involved in the shooting after he tried to burglarize a home near Big Bear, two hours east of Los Angeles, the Los Angeles Times reported, citing a law enforcement source.   AFP PHOTO / David McNew (Photo credit should read DAVID MCNEW/AFP/Getty Images)

Shantel Cardiel holds up a sign in support of fugitive triple murder suspect Christopher Dorner along the road in San Bernardino, California n February 12, 2013. Fugitive former US cop Christopher Dorner exchanged gunfire with police near a Californian ski resort where his burnt-out truck was found, reports said. The 33-year-old was involved in the shooting after he tried to burglarize a home near Big Bear, two hours east of Los Angeles, the Los Angeles Times reported, citing a law enforcement source.   AFP PHOTO / David McNew (Photo credit should read DAVID MCNEW/AFP/Getty Images)

ANGELUS OAKS, CA - FEBRUARY 12: A San Bernardino Sheriff's Department deputy watches as a car is towed away after a standoff and a shootout with former Los Angeles Police Department officer Christopher Dorner who is suspected of triple murder on February 12, 2013 in Angelus Oaks, California. Dorner barricaded himself in a cabin near Big Bear, California which later caught fire. According to the LAPD the cabin remains too hot to enter and a body has not been located. (Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images)

Law Enforcement personnel gear up along Hwy 38 during the hunt for accused killer and fired Los Angeles police officer, Christopher Dorner in Yacaipa, Caif.,Tuesday, Feb. 12, 2013. Dorner, a man police believe to be the fugitive ex-Los Angeles officer wanted in three killings, was barricaded inside a burning cabin Tuesday after a shootout in a California mountain town that left one deputy dead and another wounded. (AP Photo/Chris Carlson)

Los Angeles Police Commander Andrew Smith, left, briefs the media about the shootout scene in Big Bear that allegedly involves triple-murder suspect Christopher Jordan Dorner, during a news conference in front of the Police Administration Building in Los Angeles Tuesday, Feb. 12, 2013. (AP Photo/Damian Dovarganes)

A Redlands Police officer inspects a vehicle near the entrance to the San Bernardino National Forest, Calif. after fugitive ex-Los Angeles cop Christopher Dorner, sought in three killings, is believed to have engaged in a shootout with authorities that wounded two officers in the San Bernardino Mountains near Big Bear Lake, Tuesday, Feb. 12, 2013. (AP Photo/The Sun, Gabriel Luis Acosta) LA TIMES; VENTURA COUNTY STAR; RIVERSIDE PRESSENTERPRISE; THE VICTOR VALLEY DAILY PRESS OUT MANDATORY CREDIT

Law Enforcement personnel block Hwy 38 during the hunt for accused killer and ex-Los Angeles police officer Christopher Dorner in Yacaipa, Caif., Tuesday, Feb. 12, 2013. Dorner is believed to be barricaded in a cabin Tuesday after a furious gunbattle with police in the snow-covered mountains of Southern California, authorities said, the culmination of an intensive manhunt that left a region an edge for nearly a week. (AP Photo/Chris Carlson)

Law Enforcement personnel search a vehicle along Hwy 38 during the hunt for accused killer and ex-Los Angeles police officer Christopher Dorner in Yacaipa, Caif., Tuesday, Feb. 12, 2013. Dorner is believed to be barricaded in a cabin Tuesday after a furious gunbattle with police in the snow-covered mountains of Southern California, authorities said, the culmination of an intensive manhunt that left a region an edge for nearly a week. (AP Photo/Chris Carlson)

Los Angeles Police Commander Andrew Smith, right, briefs the media about the shootout scene in Big Bear that allegedly involves triple-murder suspect Christopher Jordan Dorner, during a news conference in front of the Police Administration Building in Los Angeles Tuesday, Feb. 12, 2013. At left, Lt. Bill Whalen of the Irvine Police Department.

A Redlands Police officer walks near a road blockade near the entrance to the San Bernardino National Forest in southern California near Big Bear Lake, Tuesday, Feb. 12, 2013.

Redlands Police officers man a blockade near the entrance to the San Bernardino National Forest in southern California after Christopher Dorner engaged in a shootout with authorities that wounded two officers in the San Bernardino Mountains near Big Bear Lake, Tuesday, Feb. 12, 2013.

Members on the California Highway Patrol search a truck for Christopher Dorner on Friday, Feb. 8, 2013, in Big Bear Lake, Calif.

A San Bernardino County Sheriff SWAT team returns to the command post at Bear Mountain near Big Bear Lake, Calif. after searching for Christopher Jordan Dorner on Friday, Feb. 8, 2013. Search conditions have been hampered by a heavy winter storm in the area. Dorner, a former Los Angeles police officer, is accused of carrying out a killing spree because he felt he was unfairly fired from his job. (AP Photo/Pool, The Inland Valley Daily Bulletin, Will Lester)

A police vehicle patrols the streets of Big Bear Lake, Calif., Saturday, Feb. 9, 2013. Clear skies allowed aircraft with heat-sensing technology to aid scores of officers searching in the snow-covered San Bernardino Mountains for Christopher Dorner, the former Los Angeles police officer suspected of killing three people in a vengeance-fueled rampage aimed at those he blames for ending his career. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)

San Bernardino County Sheriff's officer Bernabe Ortiz holds a pistol as he searches a home for former Los Angeles police officer Christopher Dorner in Big Bear Lake, Calif, Sunday, Feb. 10, 2013. The hunt for the former Los Angeles police officer suspected in three killings entered a fourth day in snow-covered mountains Sunday, a day after the police chief ordered a review of the disciplinary case that led to the fugitive's firing and new details emerged of the evidence he left behind. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)

San Bernardino County Sheriff's officers Ken Owens, center, and Bernabe Ortiz search a home for former Los Angeles police officer Christopher Dorner in Big Bear Lake, Calif, Sunday, Feb. 10, 2013. The hunt for the former Los Angeles police officer suspected in three killings entered a fourth day in snow-covered mountains Sunday, a day after the police chief ordered a review of the disciplinary case that led to the fugitive's firing and new details emerged of the evidence he left behind. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)

San Bernardino County Sheriff's officer Ken Owens searches a home for the former Los Angeles police officer Christopher Dorner in Big Bear Lake, Calif, Sunday, Feb. 10, 2013. The hunt for the former Los Angeles police officer suspected in three killings entered its fourth day in the snow-covered mountains on Sunday, a day after the police chief ordered a review of the disciplinary case that led to the fugitive's firing and new details emerged of the evidence he left behind. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)

California Highway Patrol officers search a truck for former Los Angeles police officer Christopher Dorner at a checkpoint near Big Bear Lake, Calif, Friday, Feb. 8, 2013. Law enforcement officers working in falling snow searched the Southern California mountain for Dorner, who is accused of carrying out a killing spree because he felt he was unfairly fired from his job. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)

A San Bernardino County Sheriff SWAT team returns to the command post at Bear Mountain near Big Bear Lake, Calif.

A San Bernardino County Sheriff SWAT team returns to the command post at Bear Mountain near Big Bear Lake, Calif. after searching for Christopher Jordan Dorner on Friday, Feb. 8, 2013. Search conditions have been hampered by a heavy winter storm in the area.

U.S. Forest Service Law Enforcement vehicles are covered in snow near the command post in Big Bear Lake, Calif, Friday, Feb. 8, 2013.

U.S. Marshals deputies look behind the vegetation as they stand on guard outside the home of the mother of fugitive suspect Christopher Dorner on Friday, Feb. 8, 2013.

This image shows Christopher Dorner from Jan. 28, 2013 surveillance video at an Orange County, Calif., hotel.

A digital billboard along Santa Monica Boulevard on the west side of Los Angeles shows a "wanted" alert on Friday, Feb. 8, 2013.

California Highway Patrol officers search a vehicle for former Los Angeles police officer Christopher Dorner at a checkpoint near Big Bear Lake, Calif, Friday, Feb. 8, 2013.

A California Highway Patrol officer tells a driver to roll the window at a checkpoint near Big Bear Lake, Calif, Friday, Feb. 8, 2013.

San Bernardino County Sheriff's deputies gather at the command post in Big Bear Lake, Calif, Saturday, Feb. 9, 2013. Clear skies allowed aircraft with heat-sensing technology to aid scores of officers searching in the snow-covered San Bernardino Mountains for Christopher Dorner, the former Los Angeles police officer suspected of killing three people in a vengeance-fueled rampage aimed at those he blames for ending his career. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)

San Bernardino County Sheriff's deputies board a snow cat at the command post in Big Bear Lake, Calif., Saturday, Feb. 9, 2013.

A San Bernardino County Sheriff's helicopter flies over Big Bear Lake, Calif., Saturday, Feb. 9, 2013.

A U.S. Forest Service Law Enforcement officer follows tracks left in the snow while searching a home for former Christopher Dorner in Big Bear Lake, Calif, Saturday, Feb. 9, 2013. Clear skies allowed aircraft with heat-sensing technology to aid scores of officers searching in the snow-covered San Bernardino Mountains.

San Bernardino Sheriff's Department officer Steven Spagon mans a check point during the search in Big Bear Lake, Calif. Friday, Feb. 8, 2013. Law enforcement officials spent all night searching the snowy mountains of Southern California.

Los Angeles County Sheriff's deputies stand alert outside the Twin Towers jail, which was put on lockdown after an alleged sighting of suspect Christopher Jordan Dorner Friday Feb. 8, 2013 in Los Angeles. The lockdown was later lifted. Law enforcement officers worked through the night amid an incoming snow storm searching for the former Los Angeles police officer accused of carrying out a killing spree because he felt he was unfairly fired from his job.

Cindy Bachman, public information officer for the San Bernardino Sheriff's Department, updates the media on the search for fired Los Angeles police officer, Christopher Dorner.

This undated series of photos shows suspect Christopher Dorner. Dorner, who was fired from the LAPD in 2008 for making false statements, is linked to a weekend killing in which one of the victims was the daughter of a former police captain who had represented him during the disciplinary hearing.

This undated photo released by the Los Angeles Police Department shows suspect Christopher Dorner, a former Los Angeles officer. Dorner, who was fired from the LAPD in 2008 for making false statements, is linked to a weekend killing in which one of the victims was the daughter of a former police captain who had represented him during the disciplinary hearing. Authorities believe Dorner opened fire early Thursday on police in cities east of Los Angeles, killing an officer and wounding another. Police issued a statewide "officer safety warning" and police were sent to protect people named in the posting that was believed to be written by Dorner. (AP Photo/Los Angeles Police Department)

This undated photo shows suspect Christopher Dorner. (AP Photo/Los Angeles Police Department)

This undated photo shows suspect Christopher Dorner. Police issued a statewide "officer safety warning" and police were sent to protect people named in the posting that was believed to be written by Dorner.

Here, former Los Angeles police officer Christopher Jordan Dorner is shown. Dorner is a suspect in the killings of Monica Quan and her fiance, Keith Lawrence.

Los Angeles police Chief Charlie Beck, right, comments on fired officer, Christopher Dorner, Dorner's multiple weapons, including an assault rifle, during a news conference at the LAPD headquarters in Los Angeles Thursday, Feb. 7, 2013.

Los Angeles Police Public Information officers: Sara Faden, left, and Officer Norma Eisenman carry photos of suspect Christopher Dorner during a news conference at the LAPD headquarters in Los Angeles Thursday, Feb. 7, 2013. At left, Assistant Chief Sandy Jo MacArthur.

Corona, Calif., Police officers stand near the site of a police shooting Thursday Feb. 7, 2013 in Corona, Calif.

A burned-out pickup truck belonging to ex-Los Angeles police officer Christopher Dorner is towed after it was discovered in Big Bear, Calif, Thursday, Feb. 7, 2013.

A bullet-damaged Los Angeles Police vehicle is taped off by police on Thursday Feb. 7, 2013 in Corona, Calif.

A Los Angeles Police officer checks his weapon at the site of a shooting Thursday Feb. 7, 2013 in Corona, Calif.

Reach Joe via email, call him at 909-386-3874, or find him on Twitter @SBCountyNow. ___

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Thursday, March 28, 2013

Chris Weigant: Obama Poll Watch -- January, 2013

Maintaining His Gains

President Obama ended up his first term by consolidating the job approval polling gains he made in his re-election. His numbers have settled into a new range, and were remarkably steady all month long. Obama's "second honeymoon" period with the public may not last more than a few months, but for now seems to be holding steady. With the election fading into the past, Obama's in a pretty good position right now in terms of "political capital," but this will likely change as legislative reality sets in.

Let's go to the chart, to see how Obama finished up his first term in office:

Obama Approval -- January 2013

[Click on graph to see larger-scale version.]

January, 2013

January marked the end of President Obama's first term, and the start of his second. January started off with the endgame of the fiscal cliff negotiations, where Obama scored a clean victory over the Republicans in Congress, by getting income tax rates hiked on upper-income taxpayers for the first time in 20 years. Obama scored his second political victory when the Republicans backed down on holding the world's economy hostage over the debt ceiling issue. They punted the whole decision a few months down the road, but it will likely get solved in the midst of the other upcoming budget battles.

Later in the month, Obama got the benefit of the pomp and circumstance of Inauguration Day, where he used the opportunity to give a much feistier speech than anyone expected. This sets the stage for next week's State Of The Union address to a joint session of Congress (and the American people).

Throughout all of this, Obama's job approval poll numbers stayed pretty rock steady. One outlier poll mid-month brought his average numbers down a tad, but every other poll put him between about 51 percent and 55 percent approval. The one "odd poll out" from Fox put him at only 47 percent, but this wasn't reflected in any other polling.

This resulted in a slight drop in approval, down from 53.1 to 52.7 percent. This ends Obama's longest run yet of increasing approval ratings, as it is the first such drop in the past six months. Offsetting this, Obama's disapproval numbers also dropped slightly, down 0.2 percent to a 42.6 percent average for the month. Partly, this is a result of a lot more "undecided" Americans, as the election hoopla fades. From a low of 2.7 percent the month of the election, the undecided rate was back up to a much-more-normal 4.7 percent for January.

Obama maintained his gains in one important measurement. His approval rating is "above water" (or higher than his disapproval rating) to the tune of 10.1 percent. This, with last month's 10.3 percent rating, is the best "spread" Obama has managed since the end of 2009, and is perhaps the best measurement of how much "political capital" Obama truly has right now. Even after the death of Osama Bin Laden, Obama only managed 8.3 percent, by comparison.

Overall Trends

Before we get to taking a closer look at the trends, we've got a bonus chart today. This is (so far) what we've come up with to extend this chart into Obama's second term. It's really not all that different from the one we've been using for Obama's first term, really.

Obama New

[Click on graph to see larger-scale version.]

We had the option of starting a whole new chart for Obama's second term, and just retiring the first term chart altogether. But this would miss putting Obama's second term numbers into some needed context, so we decided to just extend the X-axis scale to show both terms in one chart. Doing so made the data points look a little strange, so we've removed the "dots" for each month. Unless people have serious objections or brilliant suggestions in the comments today, this is probably what we're going with next month. We'll also likely be "cleaning up" the stats section at the bottom of the column, which is growing alarmingly large.

But let's get on with examining January and predicting the near future, shall we? Obama's trends for January are pretty flat. He didn't improve, he didn't lose much ground. But he did indeed hold onto where he was, which is impressive enough. Obama's five-month streak of increasing approval numbers raised his rating 5.9 percent since last July, and pushed him over 50 percent for the first time since his initial honeymoon period. If he continues polling steadily in the 51-55 percent range, Obama will gain back the 0.4 percent he lost this month (due again, largely, to one outlying poll).

This might signal a return to the pre-election steadiness Obama managed throughout much of his first term. Good news or bad, Obama's poll numbers resisted much "spiking" one way or another and instead mostly followed gentle and steady curves, or spent long periods absolutely flat. Obama got significantly good news in January, from the fiscal cliff victory to the debt ceiling victory to a wonderful inauguration. He's been using the "bully pulpit" with a vengeance, pushing his agenda on gun control, comprehensive immigration reform, and budget issues, but none of this has moved his numbers above the bounce he got from the election. February will have one good moment in the spotlight, as Obama lays out his second term agenda in the State Of The Union speech, but the end of the month is likely to be consumed with congressional squabbling over the budget once again.

If Obama scores an early legislative victory (such as a gun control bill passing the Senate, perhaps), this could give him a small boost. Traditionally, however, honeymoons with the public usually end within a few months (especially in second terms). So the trend heading into the Spring will likely be one of slowly receding job approval. For the moment, if Obama keeps posting numbers with the same steadiness he showed in January, the trendline is one of maintaining his election gains. But once disappointing compromises become necessary to move legislation, Obama's approval ratings are likely to fade. The question will then become how much of a drop he'll experience before he can level them off again. For now, though, he's in better shape than he has been for the past three years.

[Obama Poll Watch Data:]

Sources And Methodology

ObamaPollWatch.com is an admittedly amateur effort, but we do try to stay professional when it comes to revealing our sources and methodology. All our source data comes from RealClearPolitics.com; specifically from their daily presidential approval ratings "poll of polls" graphic page. We take their daily numbers, log them, and then average each month's data into a single number -- which is then shown on our monthly charts here (a "poll of polls of polls," if you will...). You can read a much-more detailed explanation of our source data and methodology on our "About Obama Poll Watch" page, if you're interested.

Questions or comments? Use the Email Chris page to drop me a private note.

Column Archives

[Dec 12], [Nov 12], [Oct 12], [Sep 12], [Aug 12], [Jul 12], [Jun 12], [May 12], [Apr 12], [Mar 12], [Feb 12], [Jan 12], [Dec 11], [Nov 11], [Oct 11], [Sep 11], [Aug 11], [Jul 11], [Jun 11], [May 11], [Apr 11], [Mar 11], [Feb 11], [Jan 11], [Dec 10], [Nov 10], [Oct 10], [Sep 10], [Aug 10], [Jul 10], [Jun 10], [May 10], [Apr 10], [Mar 10], [Feb 10], [Jan 10], [Dec 09], [Nov 09], [Oct 09], [Sep 09], [Aug 09], [Jul 09], [Jun 09], [May 09], [Apr 09], [Mar 09]

Obama's All-Time Statistics

Monthly
Highest Monthly Approval -- 2/09 -- 63.4%
Lowest Monthly Approval -- 10/11 -- 43.4%

Highest Monthly Disapproval -- 9/11, 10/11 -- 51.2%
Lowest Monthly Disapproval -- 1/09 -- 19.6%

Daily
Highest Daily Approval -- 2/15/09 -- 65.5%
Lowest Daily Approval -- 10/9/11 -- 42.0%

Highest Daily Disapproval -- 8/30/11 -- 53.2%
Lowest Daily Disapproval -- 1/29/09 -- 19.3%

Obama's Raw Monthly Data

[All-time high in bold, all-time low underlined.]

Month -- (Approval / Disapproval / Undecided)
01/13 -- 52.7 / 42.6 / 4.7
12/12 -- 53.1 / 42.8 / 4.1
11/12 -- 50.6 / 46.7 / 2.7
10/12 -- 49.4 / 47.8 / 2.8
09/12 -- 49.1 / 47.6 / 3.3
08/12 -- 47.8 / 48.3 / 3.9
07/12 -- 47.2 / 48.1 / 4.7
06/12 -- 47.8 / 47.8 / 4.4
05/12 -- 48.1 / 47.8 / 4.1
04/12 -- 47.8 / 47.1 / 5.1
03/12 -- 47.7 / 47.2 / 5.1
02/12 -- 48.2 / 47.2 / 4.6
01/12 -- 46.3 / 48.3 / 5.4
12/11 -- 45.1 / 49.5 / 5.4
11/11 -- 44.4 / 50.2 / 5.4
10/11 -- 43.4 / 51.2 / 5.4
09/11 -- 43.5 / 51.2 / 5.3
08/11 -- 43.8 / 50.7 / 5.5
07/11 -- 46.2 / 47.8 / 6.0
06/11 -- 48.5 / 46.0 / 5.5
05/11 -- 51.4 / 43.1 / 5.5
04/11 -- 46.4 / 48.2 / 5.4
03/11 -- 48.1 / 46.4 / 5.5
02/11 -- 49.4 / 44.5 / 6.1
01/11 -- 48.5 / 45.7 / 5.8
12/10 -- 45.5 / 48.1 / 6.4
11/10 -- 45.5 / 49.0 / 5.5
10/10 -- 45.5 / 49.1 / 5.4
09/10 -- 45.7 / 49.7 / 4.6
08/10 -- 45.3 / 49.5 / 5.2
07/10 -- 46.6 / 47.4 / 6.0
06/10 -- 47.6 / 46.7 / 5.7
05/10 -- 48.1 / 45.5 / 6.4
04/10 -- 47.8 / 46.5 / 5.7
03/10 -- 48.1 / 46.4 / 5.5
02/10 -- 47.9 / 46.1 / 6.0
01/10 -- 49.2 / 45.3 / 5.5
12/09 -- 49.4 / 44.9 / 5.7
11/09 -- 51.1 / 43.5 / 5.4
10/09 -- 52.2 / 41.9 / 5.9
09/09 -- 52.7 / 42.0 / 5.3
08/09 -- 52.8 / 40.8 / 6.4
07/09 -- 56.4 / 38.1 / 5.5
06/09 -- 59.8 / 33.6 / 6.6
05/09 -- 61.4 / 31.6 / 7.0
04/09 -- 61.0 / 30.8 / 8.2
03/09 -- 60.9 / 29.9 / 9.2
02/09 -- 63.4 / 24.4 / 12.2
01/09 -- 63.1 / 19.6 / 17.3

Chris Weigant blogs at:
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