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Thursday, October 10, 2013

Seahawks' NFL Draft Strategy Involves Finding Strong Picks In Later Rounds

Seattle Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll, left, talks with general manager John Schneider prior to an NFL football game against the Arizona Cardinals, Sunday, Sept. 9, 2012, in Glendale, Ariz. (AP Photo/Matt York)

RENTON, Wash. (AP) — John Schneider has mapped out his vision for the Seahawks' future and it involves detailed plans for keeping his team a contender for more than just one season.

They serve as his guidelines for how Seattle's roster is constructed, both in talent and money, and how to proceed in the years to come.

"I talked about these models and we're going to try to keep as many of these guys together as we go — but we want to be good for a long time. We don't want to just kind of cruise in one year and then cruise out," said Schneider, the Seahawks' general manager. "We want to be a consistent, championship-caliber team where every year, the fans, the 12th Man has hope that we're going to be in this thing and the only reason we're not in it is because — knock on wood — we have injuries or something along the way."

The Seahawks didn't have a pick in the first round of the NFL draft on Thursday night. That's fine by Schneider, who believes the Seahawks are in an enviable position, from the standpoint of roster talent and salary constraints, because of how often Seattle has hit on key players in the middle to late rounds of the draft over the past three years.

Since Schneider and head coach Pete Carroll arrived in 2010, the Seahawks have turned seven selections taken in the third round or later into starters. The most notable was last year when the Seahawks selected Russell Wilson in the third round — bypassed by others because he was only 5-foot-10 — and watched as Wilson won the starting QB job, led the team to 11 wins in the regular season and was 30 seconds away from playing in the NFC championship game.

That's not to say the first two rounds haven't been important to Schneider and the Seahawks. They got left tackle Russell Okung and safety Earl Thomas in the first round in 2010; wide receiver Golden Tate in the second round that same year; and last year picked starting middle linebacker Bobby Wagner in the second round.

But finding strong safety Kam Chancellor and All-Pro cornerback Richard Sherman in the fifth round, getting starting outside linebacker K.J. Wright in the fourth round and paying relatively very little to a QB taken in the third round has all helped the Seahawks reap bigger benefits going forward.

The Seahawks were without a first-round pick in this year's draft for the first time since 2007 and only the fourth time in franchise history. The 25th overall selection Seattle owned was sent to Minnesota as part of the trade that landed wide receiver Percy Harvin. The move to get Harvin highlighted a free agency period where the Seahawks also nabbed three additions to their defensive line, led by defensive end Cliff Avril, and addressed a need at nickel cornerback by signing veteran Antoine Winfield.

Seattle had the financial means to make such a splash in free agency because of its later-round draft success. The Seahawks will pay less than $600,000 in base salary to Wilson for the 2013 season. Sherman will make $555,000 in base money. Seattle has seven likely starters making less than $700,000 in the 2013 season. Six of those seven were drafted by the Seahawks in the past three seasons.

"It's been an exciting proposition to watch these young guys come along and you challenge them to play then you figure out a way to get them in there. And then when they do, by midseason they're regular players and they really strengthen your roster in a number of ways," Carroll said. "We've just believed in that, and it takes a great job in personnel to get the right guys in here and to make sure they can meet up to the standards and you have to give them the chance."

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John Hrabe: 3 Draft Picks in the Fantasy Entrepreneurs League

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John HrabeCo-Founder, Atlas Workshops

GET UPDATES FROM John Hrabe Like 91 3 Draft Picks in the Fantasy Entrepreneurs League Posted: 04/25/2013 5:29 pm Follow

Small Business America , Department of Veterans Affairs , Veterans , Aaron Kletzing , First Impressions Designs , Rally Point , Reagan Smith Smutny , Seth Siegel-Gardner , Small Business Administration , Terrence Gallivan , The Pass And Provisions , US Chamber Of Commerce , Yinon Weiss , ENTREPRENEURS , Entrepreneurship , Houston , Risk , Seth Godin , Small Business , Stop-Stealing-Dreams , Small Business News
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I've been retired for a few seasons. But, back in my prime, I knew how to field a fantasy football team as good as the rest. Eventually, I lost time and interest, which had nothing to do with Tom Brady's season-ending knee injury in the 2008 opener against the Chiefs.

If you don't know the difference between a field goal and a free throw, let me share a secret. Fantasy football is intoxicating for many reasons, none of which involve pigskin. It's addicting. It's engaging. It lets you trash-talk with your friends and co-workers. And it makes you a part of another person's success.

Success, in the Great Recession, has been hard to come by. Recent graduates are struggling to find work. Any work. Let alone work that pays the student loan bills. Mid-career professionals have watched their opportunities for career advancement evaporate as quickly as their home equity. All of which means that fewer people are willing to take the risk of starting their own business.

According to a new study by the Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation, "There were 514,000 new business owners per month last year, down from 543,000 each month in 2011." Much of this decline is attributed to the improving economy. Few people start a business if they can land a stable job. But, the overall trend line has been down. "For roughly 30 years, new businesses have made up a steadily shrinking portion of companies in the United States while generating a declining fraction of new jobs," writes The Atlantic's Jordan Weissmann.

There are plenty of reasons why we're less entrepreneurial: Schools that teach one right answer. Confusing and costly regulations that seem insurmountable to people without lawyers and accountants. And fewer people believing they can do it.

"The cost of setting up a lemonade stand (or whatever metaphorical equivalent you dream up) is almost 100 percent internal," writes Seth Godin, the author of Stop Stealing Dreams, an inspiring, must-read and completely free e-book. "Until you confront the fear and discomfort of being in the world and saying, 'here, I made this,' it's impossible to understand anything at all about what it means to be a entrepreneur. Or an artist."

There's even science to back it up. The Harvard Business Review has the scoop on how practicing a skill during lucid dreaming improves performance in real life. "It has been well established that athletes who mentally rehearse an activity can improve their performance, and it makes sense that dreams can achieve the same effect," dream researcher Dr. Daniel Erlacher said.

Which is why we need a Fantasy Entrepreneurs League. To inspire others, who want to start their business, but can't overcome the internal obstacle. To share tips of what works and what didn't. To support our friends and family that are putting in 12 hour days, every day.

How would it work? What categories would there be? Who would you draft first? Here's who I'd draft with my first three picks.

Restaurant Category: The Pass and Provisions, Houston's Hottest Restaurant

Reason for the Category: The NPD Group, the research company that tracks restaurants, estimates that, as of last year, there are 616,008 restaurants in the US.

My Pick: The only thing better than the food at Pass and Provisions is the story behind the two-in-one restaurant. Terrence Gallivan and Seth Siegel-Gardner, two acclaimed chefs, left New York City to cram into a tiny house in Houston. They started with a pop-up restaurant, the Just August project, a clever way to test their ideas, menu and build a loyal fan base. People couldn't get enough of their raclette, short ribs and anchovy pizza. So, they found investors and launched The Pass and Provisions, which combines the fine dining of The Pass with the more casual Provisions. For a better understanding of their long road to success, read Katharine Shilcutt's piece in the Houston Press.

Biggest Obstacle: Free-loading friends like me that eat too much when we come to Houston.

Sole Proprietor: First Impressions Designs, Five Star Service with a Personal Touch

Reason for the Category: The Small Business Administration estimates that more than "70 percent of U.S. businesses are owned and operated by sole proprietors or sole traders."

My Pick: If you're planning an event, you'll get five-star service from First Impressions Designs. That's not an exaggeration, just check out their ratings on Yelp and Wedding Wire. Perfect scores across the board from customers pleased with the invitations, accessories and personalized planning for life's special moments. Over the past 20 months, Reagan Smith Smutny has expanded her one-woman shop to a team of printers and designers. "I put my heart, my soul, my love into my business, into every interaction with every client, into every product I design and create. My business isn't just a way to make money. It isn't what motivates me to put in the 12 hour days."

Biggest Obstacle: "The millions of people who own small businesses don't have armies of lawyers and advisers helping us navigate the changes," Smutny says. "So politicians making clear, straight-forward rules would help."

The Next Big Idea: Rally Point, LinkedIn for the Military

Reason for the Category: Every business wants to be the next Facebook.

My Pick: RallyPoint is the next big idea. Founded by two military veterans at Harvard Business School, RallyPoint lets members of the military chart out their professional network and then use that to take control of their career development. It's LinkedIn for the largest and most complicated hierarchical organization in the history of the world, the Department of Defense. Aaron Kletzing and Yinon Weiss, the co-founders, have already won the 2012 MassChallenge, the world's largest startup competition.

Biggest Obstacle: Government bureaucracy. The Department of Veteran Affairs' bureaucracy has been criminal in its inept handling of veterans' disability claims. The backlog includes 250,000 claims from veterans waiting longer than a year. We need bureaucrats to step aside for innovators like Rally Point.

I'll put my three fantasy entrepreneurs against yours any day of the week and twice on Sunday. Seriously, if you think you can field a better team, post it below.

John Hrabe is one of two teams competing to lead the U.S. Chamber of Commerce's Summer Road Trip. The other team is led by the Huffington Post's Small Business Editor, Nate Hindman. To learn more, check out www.freeenterprise.com/tour.

Follow John Hrabe on Twitter:www.twitter.com/@AtlasWorkshops

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Saturday, August 24, 2013

Ben Heisler: 'Never Make Predictions... Especially About the Future': My 2013 MLB Picks

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"Never make predictions, especially about the future."

I have always had an affinity for the quotes of the legendary Casey Stengel.

Everyone thinks of Yogi Berra as the quintessential baseball quote. He made you think, laugh and occasionally want to launch your head into a brick wall. But Stengel, manager of 3,766 games in the Big Leagues never wasted any time getting to the point:

"There's three things you can do in a baseball game: You can win or you can lose or it can rain."

Hard to argue with that kind of enlightenment.

The same can be said about making predictions for an upcoming season. You can win (come up with the accurate picks). You can lose (your picks could look like a 2013 NCAA bracket). Or it can rain (I'll leave this one open to interpretation... I view it as writing your picks long-hand, cutting it up into confetti sleeves, and then proceeding to 'make it rain' after completion).

So without further ado, I give you my foolish and feeble attempt at trying to predict baseball.

American League EAST:
•Division Winner: Tampa Bay Rays
•Why They'll Get It Done: This is the most competitive division in baseball. With all five teams constantly trading Ali/Frazier sized blows to the face of each other, one must find a constant among the chaos. The Rays pitching staff is the class of the division led by reigning AL Cy Young winner David Price. Factor in a second full season from stud lefty Matt Moore, RHP Jeremy Helickson and a healthy, MVP-type season from third baseman Evan Longoria, the Rays come away on top.
•How They Could Screw Up My Prediction: Longoria continues to be plagued by injuries and the offense fails to bail their pitching staff out. Also, Roberto Hernandez becomes "Bad Fausto Carmona" again and Fernando Rodney upon completion of a save, fires an arrow into the sky that comes back to earth and hits him in the ass on the way back.
•How The Standings Will Play Out:
oTampa Bay Rays
oBoston Red Sox
oToronto Blue Jays
oNew York Yankees
oBaltimore Orioles

American League CENTRAL:
•Division Winner: Detroit Tigers
•Why They'll Get It Done: Too much talent on this team both in the lineup and rotation and not enough in the rest of the division. Cabrera, the reigning MVP and Triple-Crown winner along with first baseman Prince Fielder will continue to mash, and Justin Verlander, fresh off brand-new contract will have another Cy Young type season.
•How They Could Screw Up My Prediction: The merry-go-round of bullpen arms in the closer role fail to find consistency, leaving Jim Leyland with a bullpen of confusion and no sign of confidence in the 9th inning. Also Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder both simultaneously get hurt or become victim of the Swahili Flu.
•How The Standings Will Play Out:
oDetroit Tigers
oKansas City Royals
oChicago White Sox
oCleveland Indians
oMinnesota Twins

American League WEST:
•Division Winner: Los Angeles Angels
•Why They'll Get It Done: If you haven't heard of this here Mike Trout kid, he's really quite special. The five-tool "should've been MVP" outfielder from 2012 has another solid season, although it will be tough to replicate the type of success from a year ago. Factor in a full season of Albert Pujols being the player they thought he'd be and the most complete lineup in the American League give the Halos a slight edge over the Rangers.
•How They Could Screw Up My Prediction: I still have lots of concerns regarding their starting pitching. After Jered Weaver, it's a whole lot of "Ehhhh." CJ Wilson could continue his struggles, Jason Vargas may look like the pitcher that got shelled outside of Safeco Field in Seattle, and they seem to love Joe Blanton a whole lot more than everyone else (maybe not Joe Blanton's family but you catch my drift).
•How The Standings Will Play Out:
oLos Angeles Angels
oTexas Rangers
oSeattle Mariners
oOakland Athletics
oHouston Astros

American League Wild Card Teams:
•Boston Red Sox
•Texas Rangers

National League EAST:
•Division Winner: Washington Nationals
•Why They'll Get It Done: If you don't have Spring Training statistical concerns, there are almost no flaws in the makeup of this team. I'll knit-pick starting rotation depth in case anyone in their starting five get hurt, but this is as a complete lineup as there is in the National League. Ross Detwiler is their number 4 starter and his fastball had more swings and misses than his rotation-mate, Stephen Strasburg. They also have three closers hanging out in the bullpen with ridiculous stuff in Rafael Soriano, Drew Storen and Tyler Clippard. First to 100-wins this year will be the "Curly Ws."
•How They Could Screw Up My Prediction: Strasburg decides to shut himself down in fear of the future. Seriously, there's no way this team doesn't make the playoffs unless half the team get their legs or arms cut off in a freak accident falling off the "Shake Shack" deck.
• How The Standings Will Play Out:
oWashington Nationals
oAtlanta Braves
oPhiladelphia Phillies
oNew York Mets
oMiami Marlins

National League CENTRAL:
•Division Winner: Cincinnati Reds
•Why They'll Get It Done: They've shown a healthy, durable starting rotation in 2012, and first baseman Joey Votto is poised for a monster season at first base. Outfielder Jay Bruce has put up better home run and RBI numbers than the previous season in all five his big league seasons. And did I mention the "Jay A Kid" is just 25-years-old? Makes me realize how little I've accomplished in my young life.
•How They Could Screw Up My Prediction: The superb health of their starting rotation from a season ago breaks down in 2013. Also if Aroldis Chapman struggles to throw strikes back in the closer's role and doesn't develop more quality pitches other than his fastball. His secondary pitch, his slider was only thrown about 12 percent of the time. At some point, as a top-notch closer, you need more than one great out pitch to keep hitters guessing.
•How The Standings Will Play Out:
oCincinnati Reds
oSt. Louis Cardinals
oPittsburgh Pirates
oMilwaukee Brewers
oChicago Cubs

National League WEST:
•Division Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers
•Why They'll Get It Done: Led by arguably the top 1-2 pitching combination in baseball with Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke, the Dodgers talent plays to their capabilities and is too much to handle for pitching-heavy San Francisco and chippy Arizona.
•How They Could Screw Up My Prediction: They get off to a rotten, slow start, and play the role of the 2012 Angels; struggling to climb out of the hole they created for themselves.
•How The Standings Will Play Out:
oLos Angeles Dodgers
oSan Francisco Diamondbacks
oSan Diego Padres
oArizona Diamondbacks
oColorado Rockies

National League Wild Card Teams:
•Atlanta Braves
•St. Louis Cardinals

World Series Matchup:
•Nationals over Rays in 5.

American League Rookie of the Year:
•Wil Myers - Tampa Bay Rays OF

National League Rookie of the Year:
•Shelby Miller - St. Louis Cardinals SP

American League Cy Young:
•Justin Verlander - Detroit Tigers SP

National League Cy Young:
•Cole Hamels - Philadelphia Phillies SP

American League MVP:
•Evan Longoria - Tampa Bay Rays 3B

National League MVP:
•Matt Kemp - LA Dodgers OF

Follow Ben Heisler on Twitter:www.twitter.com/bennyheis

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